河南省城市旅游发展潜力时空演变及空间相关性分析

The Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Spatial Correlation Analysis of Urban Tourism Development Potential in Henan Province

综合运用泰尔指数、变异系数、σ系数、莫兰指数、聚类分析法等地理学方法定量分析2010—2015年河南省18个地级市旅游发展潜力时空演变以及空间相关性,发现河南省各个地级市之间旅游发展潜力差异性巨大,两极分化严重,但整体变化不大,呈现出逐渐减小的趋势;河南省旅游发展潜力空间分布格局整体变化不大,呈现出"弓形"的发展特征,河南省18个市域单元旅游发展潜力全局Moran’s I指数均为正值,空间关联性上表现为空间正相关性。同时,2010—2015年Moran’s I指数逐年减小,空间关联性在逐年衰减,空间集聚性表现不强烈。

The spatial-temporal evolution and spatial correlation of tourism development potential of 18 prefecture-level cities in Henan Province from 2010 to 2015 were analyzed quantitatively by using the Theil index, Variation coefficient, coefficient of Sigma, Moran index, Cluster analysis. The results are as follows： （1） The tourism development potentials among prefecture-level cities in Henan Province are remarkably different, and the polarization is striking, but the overall change is not great, even has decreasing tendency; （2） The spatial distribution pattern of tourism development potential in Henan Province has not changed much overall, showing the development characteristics of 弓 in spatial distribution;（3） The Moran’I index of 18 urban units in Henan Province and the spatial correlation are both positive. At the same time, the Moran’I index decreased year by year from 2010 to 2015, the spatial correlation weakened year by year, and the spatial agglomeration performance was not strong.