轨道接驳客流预测模型研究

Research on passenger flow prediction model for track connection

轨道交通作为多模式复合交通体系主导的出行模式,准确有效地预测接驳客流,可为提高轨道交通吸引力及运营组织能力提供参考依据。文章从轨道车站的发展定位、周边道路及辐射小区的通达服务特征出发,提出了基于轨道可达性和道路可达性的接驳客流吸引强度指标,运用经典Logit模型构建了轨道交通接驳客流预测模型,并借助长沙市滨江新城轨道交通接驳客流调查数据,对其进行了验证。结果表明:轨道车站的接驳客流吸引强度取决于轨道车站类型和辐射小区的可达性;车站的轨道可达性指标值、道路可达性指标值分别为0. 5～1. 6和2. 68～10. 0,可达性越强,车站接驳客流吸引强度和客流规模越大,模型预测效果越好。

As the leading travel mode in multi-mode-complex traffic system, the accurate and effective prediction of rail transit connecting passenger flow can provide a reference for improving the attractiveness of railway transit and operation organization ability. Starting from the development orientation of the railway station, the surrounding roads and the service characteristics of the radiation community, this paper puts forward the attraction strength index of the connection passenger flow based on the orbit accessibility and the road accessibility, constructs the model of the railway station connection passenger flow prediction based on the Classic Logit model. It is verified based on the passenger flow survey data of Binjiang new town rail transit in Changsha. The results show that the passenger flow intensity of the railway station is determined by the type of rail station and the accessibility of the radiation community. The orbit accessibility index and the road accessibility of the station are 0.5 ~ 1.6 and 2.68 ~ 10.0, respectively. The stronger the accessibility, the larger the passenger attraction intensity and the passenger flow scale of the station connection, the better the prediction effect.