物流业的产业影响效应及其政策启示——基于全国35个大中城市面板数据的实证研究

Industrial Influence Effect of Logistics Industry Development and Its Policy Enlightenment——Empirical Study based on Panel Data of 35 Large and Medium-size Cities in China

基于全国35个大中城市面板数据,可构建跨城市面板数据模型从价值层面与实物层面同时探析物流业对三大产业的影响效应,在对估计结果进行稳健性与内生性检验基础上,深入分析该影响效应的地区异质性表现。研究结果发现,两个层面衡量的物流业对三大产业均有显著的促进效应,且该估计结果通过了稳健性检验;经过内生性检验后物流业对三大产业的正向影响效应仍显著存在,且消除内生性问题影响后,该效应均得到了显著加强;物流业对东部、中部、西部地区产业的影响效应存在地区异质性,对东部地区第一产业的正向影响效应不显著,但对中部地区第二产业的促进效应最为明显,而对东部地区第二、第三产业的促进效应不及中部和西部地区,表明物流业对东部发达地区产业的促进效应相对最弱;劳动力成本、购买力水平、教育投入、基础设施建设水平等均对三大产业有促进效应,地方政府规模却对三大产业均有负向影响效应。基于此,我国应解除制约物流业发展的体制机制障碍,打破物流业整体布局的区域壁垒;提高物流业与各产业的融合度与动态匹配度,建立现代产业体系;提高物流业驱动下的产业发展与地区经济发展战略的有效契合度,促进地区经济快速发展。

Based on the panel data of 35 large and medium-size cities in China, the anthors construct a panel model across cities to probe into the influence effect of the logistics industry development on the primary, secondary, and tertiary industry from both the value level and the material level, and test the stability and endogeneity. On the basis of the above, the authors also analyze the regional heterogeneity of the effect. The results of the study found are as following. First, the logistics industry development has a significant positive effect on the three main industries from both the value level and the material level, and the empirical estimation result has passed the robustness test. Second, after endogenesis test, it is found that the positive effect of logistics industry development on the three main industries still exists significantly, and after eliminating the influence of endogenous problems, this effect has been significantly strengthened. Third, there are regional heterogeneity in the effects of logistics industry development on the industries in the eastern, central and western regions. The positive effect on the primary industry in the eastern region is not significant, but the promotion effect on the secondary industry in the central region is the most obvious; moreover, the promotion effect of the secondary and the tertiary industry in the eastern region is not as good as that of the central and western regions, which indicates that the logistics industry development has the weakest promotion effect on the eastern developed regions. And fourth, the estimation results from control variables shows that the labor cost, purchasing power level, education investment, and infrastructure construction level all have positive effects on the three industries, but the scale of local government has a negative effect on the three industries. The authors put forward that, first, we should eliminate the institutional and mechanism barriers hindering the development of logistics industry, and breakthrough the regional barriers; second, we should improve the integration level and the dynamic matching level among the logistics industry and other industries, and establish modern industrial system; and third logistics-industry-driven industrial development and regional regional economic development. we should improve the effective Integrative level between the economic development, and promote the rapid development of