汇率制度、全球金融冲击与新兴经济体短期跨境资本流动

Exchange Rate Regime,Global Financial Shocks and EMEs' Short-Term Capital Flows

市场化汇率形成机制能够更加有效地配置资源和释放风险,是跨境资本流动的自动稳定器。基于32个新兴经济体1990年第一季度至2016年第四季度跨境资本流动数据,考察全球金融冲击背景下新兴经济体汇率制度选择对跨境资本流动的作用可以发现,全球金融冲击影响新兴经济体短期跨境资本流入,但不同汇率制度间存在系统性差异,相比于浮动汇率制度,固定汇率制度和中间汇率制度强化了全球金融冲击对新兴经济体短期跨境资本流入的负影响。同时,考虑到中国作为最大的新兴经济体在生产资料所有制等诸多方面与其他样本新兴经济体存在的差异,将中国剔除后进一步检验汇率制度对全球金融冲击和短期跨境资本流动的调节作用,亦得到了相似的结论。而且,替换全球金融冲击代理变量、考虑制度因素影响、考虑跨境资本流入导致汇率制度变迁的反向影响后该结论依然稳健。由此可以认为,随着全球一体化进程的不断深入,尽管灵活的汇率制度难以提供完美的绝缘性,却能够在一定程度上减弱全球金融冲击对跨境资本流入的负面影响。在我国全面建成小康社会决胜阶段和中国特色社会主义进入新时代的关键时期,为真正实现由市场决定的汇率制度,我国监管部门一定要把人民币汇率制度市场化改革视为一项系统工程,在中国共产党领导下坚持改革的自主性、渐进性和可控性;一定要合理引导人民币汇率预期,促使汇率更好地发挥自动稳定器的作用。

The market-oriented exchange rate mechanism could allocate resources and release risk more effectively, and could play as an automatic stabilizer for cross-border capital flows. Using 32 emerging economies capital flow data from 1990Q1 to 2016Q4, the authors analyze how exchange rate regime changes the influence of global financial shocks on short-term capital inflows. The results show that global financial shocks have a significant impact on the short-term cross-border capital inflow of EMEs, but between different exchange rate regimes the above influence is quite different. Compared to floating exchange rate regime, fixed exchange rate regime and intermediate exchange rate regime strengthen the negative impact of global financial shocks on the short-term cross-border capital inflow of EMEs. Given China is the largest emerging economy, whose institutions are quite different from other emerging economies in the sample, the authors drop out China from the sample but get the same conclusions. Besides, these findings are robust when using different global financial shock variables, including institutional factors and the reverse causality of exchange rate regime changes caused by cross-border capital inflow. So the authors believe that, with the deepening global integration, though the flexible exchange rate regime cannot provide the perfect insulativity, to some extend, it can weaken the negative impact of global financial shocks on cross-border capital inflows. During the decisive stage in building a moderately prosperous society in all respects and at a critical moment as socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era, to really realize the market-oriented exchange rate regime, China＇ s regulatory authorities should view reform in RMB market-oriented reform as a a systematic project, which should be autonomy, gradual and controllable under the leadership of CPC; and China＇ s regulatory authorities should also guide RMB exchange rate expectations, so that the exchange rate can better play the role of automatic stabilizer.