ICU护理人员情绪劳动时间序列分析

Time Series Analysis of Emotional Labor of ICU Nurses

目的了解ICU护理人员近5年情绪劳动变化并进行模型预测,为科学、有效的干预提供参考依据。方法将符合纳入排除标准的新疆某三甲医院31名ICU护理人员作为研究对象,在2013年1月至2017年12月期间每月15日采用情绪劳动量表对研究对象进行调查并记录,使用时间序列模型对5年情绪劳动得分数据进行分析,同时预测2018年前4个月情绪劳动得分并与实测值比较。结果经过多次拟合,模型拟合较好(R2=0.930,Ljung-Box Q(18)=30.75,P=0.014),近5年ICU护理人员情绪劳动得分符合简单季节模型,即在每年3月最低,7月最高。每年ICU护理人员情绪劳动相对平稳,但有缓慢上升的趋势(r=0.919,P=0.027)。将2018年前4月实测数据与模型预测数据进行对比,显示预测值与实测值之间无统计学差异(t=1.555,P=0.218)。结论通过建立时间序列模型可有效发现ICU护理人员情绪劳动得分变化并能够进行未来趋势预测,可在今后研究中针对关键节点实施干预。

Objective To understand the changes of emotional labor in ICU nurses in recent five years andpredict the model to provide reference for scientific and effective intervention in the future. Methods 31 ICU nur-ses who met the exclusion criteria were selected as the research sujects during the period from January 2013 to De-cember 2017,and the emotional labor scale was used to survey and record the research objects. The time series model was used to analyze the emotional labor score, and the scores of emotional labor in the first four months of 2018 were predicted and compared with the measured values. Results After many times of fitting, the model seemed to be in good agreement （R2 = 0. 930, l jung-boxQ （18）= 30. 75, P = 0. 014）. In recent five years, ICU nurses？ emotional labor score accorded with simple seasonal model. It was lowest in March every year, and highest in July. Emotional labor of ICU nurses was relatively smooth every year, but there was a tendency of slow increase （r = 0. 919, P = 0. 027 ）. Comparing the measured data in April before 2018, the model predicted data showed that there was no statistical difference between the predicted value and the measured value （ t = 1. 555, P = 0. 218）. Conclusion By establishing time series model, we can effectively find the changes of ICU nurses emotional labor scores and predict the future trend, and we can carry out intervention on key nodes in future research.