中国汽车行业产能利用预警体系构建及评价

Construction and Evaluation of Early Warning System for Capacity Utilization in China's Automotive Industry

文章采用边界生产函数测度2000～2017年汽车行业产能利用率,从产能供给、需求、供求效果三个方面选取14个指标,确定产能利用预警等级及数值区间,并对其映射求权重,进而编制汽车行业产能利用预警综合指数与汽车行业产能利用率协同预警产能利用状态。研究结果显示:产能利用预警综合指数与产能利用率对汽车行业产能利用状态的预警存在一定滞后差异,只有将两者有机结合,才能科学判定汽车行业产能预警状态。

Using the boundary production function to measure the capacity utilization rate of the auto industry from＇2000 to 2017, this paper selects 14 indexes from three aspects of production capacity supply, demand, supply and demand effects, determines the level of production utilization warning level and numerical range, maps the index and gets weight, and then compiles the comprehensive index of early warning of capacity utilization in automobile industry, which collaboratively early warns capacity utilization status with the capacity utilization ratio of the automobile industry. The research results show that： there is a lag difference between the comprehensive index of early warning of capacity utilization and capacity utilization rate on the state of the automobile industry capacity utilization early-warning. Only by combining the two organically , can the early warning state of automobile industry capacity be scientifically judged.