黑龙江省大豆田农药用量及未来变化趋势研究与分析

Research and Analysis on Pesticide Amount and Future Trend of Soybean Field in Heilongjiang Province

为明确黑龙江省大豆田农药使用量及变化趋势,为黑龙江省大豆田农药生产、使用技术以及农业政策的实施背景提供理论依据。本文通过数据定点调查及数据分析等方法获得了近20余年黑龙江省粮食和大豆田农药总用量、单位面积农药用量等数据,结合实际国情、农业政策以及粮食产量变化关系,系统的分析了黑龙江省农田及大豆田农药总用量、单位面积用量以及不同品种农药用量的变化特点,同时利用数学模型灰色预测法对数据进行整合分析,对未来几年农药用量进行预测分析。数据结果表明:黑龙江省农田及大豆田农药用量与粮食产量有着密切的相关性,特别是除草剂用药量与粮食产量变化趋势大体一致,呈逐年上升趋势;单位面积农药使用量与单位面积粮食产量也有着较高的一致性。近年来,辛硫磷、氧化乐果占黑龙江省大豆田杀虫剂总用量比例较高;多菌灵、甲基托布津占黑龙江省大豆田杀菌剂总用量比例较高;氟磺胺草醚、乙草胺占黑龙江省大豆田除草剂总用量比例较高。2015-2016年,黑龙江省农药使用量呈缓慢上升趋势;推测未来几年,黑龙江省农药使用量将逐年缓慢升高且趋于平稳,其中大豆田农药使用量将呈升高后降低进而趋于平稳的趋势。

The relationship between pesticide use and soybean yield in soybean fields in Heilongjiang province was deter- mined, which provided a theoretical basis for the implementation of pesticide production and use technology and agricultural policies in soybean fields in Heilongjiang province. In this paper, data such as total pesticide dosage and acreage of cereals and soybean fields in Heilongjiang province in the past 20 years have been obtained through data fixed point survey and data a- nalysis. And the total amount of pesticide in soybean field in Heilongjiang province, the amount of peanut and the variation of pesticide used in different varieties was analyzed systematically according to the actual situation, agricultural policy and grain yield. At the same time, the data were analyzed by gray prediction method, and the forecast of pesticide using in the next 10 years was analyzed. The results showed that the pesticide using rate of soybean field and farm land in Heilongjiang province was in general, and the trend of pesticide using and grain yield per unit area was also consistent with the trend of grain yield. In recent years, phoxim and omethoate had a higher proportion of pesticide in soybean field in Heilongjiang province, carben- dazim and methyl thiophanate accounted for a higher proportion of total bactericides in soybean fields in Heilongjiang province, flufenazone and acetochlor accounted for Heilongjiang provincial soybean field total herbicide using ratio is higher. The using of pesticides in Heilongjiang province showed a slow upward trend in 2015 to 2016. It is speculated that in the next few years, the using of pesticides in Heilongjiang province will gradually increase and stabilize gradually year by year, and the using of pesticides in soybean fields will increase and then decrease, which tends to be stable.