离岸人民币境外需求的测度及提升路径研究

Research on the Measurement and Promotion of the Overseas Demand for Offshore RMB

利用缺口估计法通过构建人民币流通规模计量模型,文章估测了2008年12月至2017年9月三个货币层次的离岸人民币境外需求的程度。结果显示:离岸人民币M0境外需求的波动性较大,离岸人民币M1和M2境外需求自2014年初开始大幅上升。在不同时期下,支撑离岸人民币境外需求的因素有所不同,人民币升值、跨境贸易人民币结算和对外人民币直接投资先后成为支撑离岸人民币境外需求的主要因素。境外对离岸人民币M1和M2需求更主要取决于跨境贸易人民币结算、对外人民币直接投资等对外经贸往来中实体层面因素带动下的人民币国际化进程。在阐明了离岸人民币境外需求提升具有明显必要性的基础上,又提出了离岸人民币境外需求提升的主要路径。

The paper estimates the overseas demand for offshore RMB（ CNH） from December2008 to September 2017 by constructing the circulation of RMB model with the gap estimation method from three currency levels（ M0,M1 and M2）. The result shows that the overseas demand for CNH（ M0） is more volatile. However, the data has witnessed surges since early2014 when it comes to M1 and M2. In different periods, the factors supporting the overseas demand for CNH are different. The overseas demand for CNH（ M1 and M2） is more dependent on the development level of RMB internationalization in China＇s foreign economic and trade transactions. This paper clarifies the obvious necessity of CNH overseas demand enhancement and puts forward the main path for it.