原产地规则视角下中国-韩国自由贸易协定建构的利益博弈

Interest Game of China-Korea Free Trade Agreement: From the Perspective of Rules of Origin

高标准与高水平的区域自由贸易协定对中国外向型经济发展和"一带一路"倡议实施具有重要意义。复杂的国际政治经济环境促使人们思考中韩两国对中国-韩国FTA的真实态度及其实施效果。基于中国-韩国FTA原产地规则的制度特征,运用有序Probit模型对原产地规则制度选择的影响因素进行实证检验,深入分析中国-韩国FTA制度建构的利益关切与角力,论证对中韩双方可能产生的贸易影响,发现相比韩国对中国-韩国FTA的审慎态度,中国秉持开放理念,更期望以贸易创造和域内贸易移入效应促进区域经济发展,而韩国更倾向贸易保护来维护其现有贸易格局。因此,中国的FTA战略目标要综合考量地缘政治与经济目标,从而在全球经济发展中获得应有之利益。

High-standard and high-level regional free trade agreement（ FTA） is of great significance for the development of China＇s open economy and the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative. The complicated international economic and political environment urges us to deeply think about the real attitudes of China and Korea towards China-Korea FTA and its implementation effect. Based on the institutional characteristic of Rules of Origin（ ROO） in China-Korea FTA, this paper conducts an empirical test on the factors influencing the choice of ROO with the ordered-probit model and makes an in-depth analysis of the interest concerns and wrestling of China-Korea FTA institutional construction to expound the potential trade influence on China and Korea. The results reveal that compared with Korea,China holds a more open attitude to China-Korea FTA and expects to promote the regional economic development by trade creation and trade shift-in but Korea is more inclined to maintain its existing trade pattern through trade protectionism. Therefore, China＇s strategic objectives of FTA shall comprehensively consider the geopolitical and economic objectives so as to obtain the due economic interests from the global economic development.