实证经济学分析范式的拓展——公安机关公信力实证研究

The Expansion of the Analytical Paradigm of Positive Economics——Empirical Research on Public Security Organs’ Credibility

实证经济学分析范式是最接近自然科学分析范式的社会科学分析范式,既然如此,实证经济学分析范式能否拓展到社会科学其他领域？我们试图做这方面的尝试,运用实证经济学范式来分析公安机关公信力问题。通过回归分析及结构方程模型对五要素（公众认知度、质量感知度、网媒影响度、公众期望度和社会信任度）对公安机关公信力的影响强度及影响机理进行验证和分析。结果表明：（1）质量感知度、公众期望度、社会信任度对公安机关公信力具有正向显著影响;（2）公众认知度及网媒影响度对公安机关公信力的直接影响不显著,但通过质量感知度及公众期望度间接影响公安机关公信力,两者影响机理各不同。本研究结论为我国公安机关加强公信力建设提供了决策依据。

The paradigm of empirical economics analysis is the one closest to the paradigm of natural science analysis. In this case, can the paradigm of empirical economics analysis be extended to other fields of social science？ We try to use the paradigm of empirical economics to analyze the credibility of public security organs. Through regression analysis and structural equation model, the paper verifies and analyzes the influence intensity and mechanism of the five factors（ including pubtic recognition, public quality perception, network media influence, public expectation and social general trust） on the public security organs＂ credibility. The results show that ：（1）public expectation, public quality perception and general social trust have a positive and significant impact on public security organs＇ credibility; （2） the network media influence and public perception have no significant direct influence on the credibility of public security organs, but indirectly affect the credibility of public security organs through the quality perception and public expectation. The two influencing mechanisms are different. The conclusion of this study provides a decision basis for our country＇s public security organs to strengthen the construction of public trust.