影子银行发展增加了货币供给吗？--基于信用创造视角和BVAR模型

Does the Development of Shadow Banlaing Increase the Supplyt of Money? Based on the Perspective of Credit Creation and BVAR Model

本文将影子银行引入银行存款创造模型,考虑到法定存款准备金率、超额存款准备金率等因素的基础上,研究影子银行通过分流商业银行存款、改变信用创造从而影响货币供给的理论机制,并基于中国的现实数据运用BVAR模型进行实证检验。结果表明:影子银行对货币供给的作用呈现一定的周期性特征。2008年国际金融危机以来,社会总需求紧缩、流动性紧张,中国影子银行规模扩张总体上减少了货币供给。在经济低迷时,影子银行分流了商业银行存款,影子银行预留扣减率升高,削弱了银行信用创造的能力,减少了货币供给;同时,商业银行的法定存款准备率和超额存款准备金率之和可能低于影子银行的预留扣减率,从而在影子银行漏损率的作用下又减少了货币供给。

In this paper, the shadow bank is introduced into the model of bank deposit creation. On the basis of factors such as the statutory deposit reserve ratio and the excess deposit reserve ratio, this paper studies the theoretical mechanism of the shadow bank affecting the money supply by diverting commercial bank deposits and changing the credit creation, and based on the real data of China using the BVAR model. Empirical test. The results show that the role of shadow banking has a cyclical character in money supply. Since the international financial crisis in 2008, the total demand of the society has been tightened and liquidity is tight. The expansion of China＇s shadow banking has generally reduced the supply of money. In the economic downturn, the shadow bank diverted the commercial bank deposits, the shadow bank reserve re-duction rate increased, weakened the bank credit creation ability and reduced the money supply; at the same time, the le-gal deposit preparation rate and the excess reserve ratio of the commercial banks may be lower than the reserve deduction rate of the shadow bank. Under the action of the leakage rate of sub banks, the money supply has been reduced.