基于改进logistic模型的中国社会消费品零售总额预测

A Predictive Parsing of Based on Improving Logistic Model's Total Volume of Retail Sales of Social Goods in China

建立改进的logistic模型,预测中国社会消费品零售总额.依据中国1991-2016年社会消费品零售总额曲线变化特点和最终发展状态,建立改进的logistic模型,利用此模型预测中国社会消费品零售总额.预测结果与其他的社会消费品零售总额模型和经典的Logistic模型预测结果相比,可信度更高,可为相关部门制定政策提供参考.

The improved logistic model has been established to forecast China’s total retail sales of consumer goods. According to the characteristics and the trend of China’s total retail sales of consumer goods from 1991 to 2012, the improved logistic model has been established to forecast China＇s total retail sales of consumer goods. The forecast results are compared with other forecast models of total retail sales of consumer goods. The model has higher credibility and can provide reference for related departments to formulate relevant policies.