安徽省流动人口分布格局演变及其影响因素

Distribution Pattern Evolution and Influencing Factors of Floating Population in Anhui Province

利用2000年和2010年安徽省人口普查区县层面的数据,对安徽省流动人口分布格局的演变及其影响因素进行了分析。研究发现:2000—2010年安徽省总流动人口增长迅速,市级区划单元成为人口流入的主要地区,尤其是合肥市市区成为总流动人口集聚的高地。安徽省省内流动人口在合肥市市区及其周边区县和皖江以南城市带地区存在集聚化的趋势,空间自相关检验表明真正的集聚区还未形成;而省外流动人口则出现了两个明显的高值集聚区,均位于靠近江浙的安徽省域东部省际边缘区。就地域类型分布格局而言,2000—2010年安徽省省内流入型活跃区和平衡型活跃区出现了较大的变化,其中平衡型活跃区变化最为明显,出现集中分布在安徽省域东南部区域的趋势。影响安徽省人口流动的因素在不同行政等级单元中存在较大的差异,总体而言地区的经济发展水平对流动人口存在显著的影响。未来,随着安徽省社会经济的发展,其流动人口的区域化集聚趋势将进一步加强。

Based on the Anhui census data of 2000 and 2010, this paper analyzes the distribution pattern evolution of migrant population in Anhui Province and its influencing factors at the district level, including the floating population in the province and the floating population outside the province. The study finds that the total floating population increased rapidly from 2000 to 2010 in Anhui Province, and the municipal division units became the major area where the floating population entered, especially urban areas of Hefei had become the highland of the total floating population. There was a trend of agglomeration in the Hefei urban area , its surrounding districts and the area in the south of Anhui Province, the spatial autocorrelation test showed that the real agglomeration area had not yet formed, while distribution of the floating population from other province appeared two agglomeration areas,they were located in the eastern area of Anhui Province near the Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province. As can be seen from the geographical distribution pattern, the inflow-type active areas and balanced active areas showed a great change from 2000 to 2010 in Anhui Province, with the most obvious change in the balanced active areas, most of which concentrated in the southeast of Anhui Province.The factors that affected the population flow in Anhui Province were quite different in different administrative levels. Generally speaking, the level of economic development in the region had a significant impact on the floating population.In the future, with the social and economic development in Anhui Province, the trend of regional agglomeration of floating population will be further strengthened.