货币国际化的影响因素及其传导路径分析

Analysis of the Factors Affecting Currency Internationalization and Its Transmission Path

未来人民币国际化的战略路线和战略重点如何系统制定,是我国政府和学者关注的重要问题。研究这些问题的前提,是要深入分析货币国际化的关键影响因素及其传导路径。本文基于货币的三大职能选择代表性量化指标,选取1999年-2016年为数据样本区间,选择美元、欧元、英镑和日元作为截面,建立面板数据模型,运用虚拟变量最小二乘法和面板校正标准误方法对各个因素对货币国际化的直接影响进行估计;利用面板Granger因果检验,考察货币国际化的传导路径。分析表明,经贸、金融、币值等因素对货币国际化构成直接传导路径,军政、科技等因素除了直接路径外,还构成间接传导路径。

It is an important issue for the Chinese government and scholars to systematically formulate the strategic route and strategic focus of the future RMB internationalization. The premise of studying these problems is to analyze in depth the key influencing factors of currency internationalization and its transmission path. This paper selects the representative quantitative indicators based on the three functions of currency, selects the data sample interval from 1999 to 2016, selects the dollar, euro, pound and yen as the cross section, establishes the panel data model, and uses the virtual variable least squares method and panel correction. The standard error method estimates the direct impact of various factors on currency internationalization; using the panel Granger causality test to examine the conduction path of currency internationalization. The analysis shows that factors such as economy, trade, finance, and currency constitute a direct transmission path for currency internationalization. In addition to the direct path, military and political, scientific and technological factors also constitute an indirect conduction path.