全球数字贸易崛起:发展格局与影响因素分析

Rise of Global Digital Trade:Analysis of its Development Patterns and Determinants

数字贸易已成为全球贸易中正在崛起的重要新业态。文章在界定数字贸易内涵的基础上,运用社会网络分析方法研究2007—2014年全球数字贸易网络发展态势,刻画了其基本特征和演进方向,并运用改进的引力模型实证分析数字贸易影响因素。结果表明,全球数字贸易网络布局相对均衡,但各国在网络中的地位差距较大;美德英法四国处于数字贸易网络中心,而中国正快速由边缘趋向中心。数字贸易发展的重要决定因素包括技术水平、制度和文化等因素。要推进中国数字贸易的崛起,需提升技术水平、完善知识产权保护、加快区域服务贸易协定签订、把握数字贸易定规权和强化本土文化输出。

Digital trade has become a significant form in global trade.Based on the definition of digital trade,this paper studies its development from 2007 to 2014 by social network analysis,which depicts its basic characteristics and evolution direction;and it also uses the improved gravity model to verify the related factors.Results show that:the development of global digital trade network is in balance and stable,but with gaps among countries.Of which the United States and some European countries are at the center of the network,while China at the edge of it,but with a positive momentum of development.Results also show that techniques,institutional and cultural factors play an important role in determining its development.To promote digital trade,China needs to improve its techniques and IRP system,to take initiatives in service and digital trade rule making,and also to strengthen the export of Chinese culture.