江西省最大风速的分布研究

Estimating Maximum Wind Speeds in Jiangxi

利用1974-2014年江西87个国家站数据,进行江西省年最大风速的极值分布研究。结果表明,GEV(广义极值模型)和Pearson-Ⅲ模型(极值Ⅲ型,皮尔逊Ⅲ型)更适合在江西估算不同重现期的年最大风速极值。江西省50年一遇的年最大风速总体分布在12. 5～26. 4 m/s,其中以寻乌、崇义和宜黄代表的赣东南为典型的小风区域,极值不到13. 0 m/s,以庐山和进贤代表的赣北中部为典型的大风区域,极值达到24. 0 m/s。总体而言,江西省的年最大风速呈"倒V型"分布。结果为江西县城及周边平坦开阔区域的重大工程气候可行性论证提供有力理论依据和可靠服务。

Extreme wind is a disastrous weather phenomenon. It often causes great casualties and property losses. Therefore, it is quite useful and necessary to study the characteristics of extreme wind. Based on the historical wind speed observations during 1974 -2014 from 87 national sites in Jiangxi, the recun^nce levels of maximum wind speed were estimated in this paper with 4 extreme value distributions. The comparison showed that GEV （ Generalized Extreme Value distribution） and Pearson-III （Type III extreme value distribution） modeled better in Jiangxi. At a recmTence interval of 50 years, maximum wind speeds in Jiangxi are 12.5 -26.4 m/s at a height of 10 m. Among them, maximum wind speeds are least in the southeast area of Jiangxi,less than 13.0 m/s while they are greatest in the middle north of Jiangxi,greater than 24.0 m/s. Overall, extreme wind speeds in Jiangxi are ＂reverse V＂ in spatial distribution. The results provide a strong theoretical basis and reliable service for the climate feasibility study of major projects at the counties and smrounding areas in Jiangxi.