中国碳排放的空间异质性、依赖性与门槛效应

Spatial Heterogeneity,Dependence and Threshold Effect of Carbon Emission in China

基于我国30个省份的2000-2013年的面板数据,建立空间计量模型和门槛模型,分析了我国省际碳排放的空间效应与门槛效应,并对其影响因素进行了实证研究。研究结果表明：省际碳排放量存在显著正的空间自相关性和空间依赖性,东部和中部地区整体碳排放水平高于西部和东北地区,河北、山东、江苏、山西等省份存在显著的高-高集聚趋势。空间杜宾模型表明产业结构、城镇化水平、环境规制对碳排放量具有显著的正向影响,对外开放程度对碳排放量具有显著的负向影响,经济增长对碳排放的影响呈＂N＂型曲线关系。以经济增长为门槛变量的门槛回归模型表明各因素对碳排放的影响在不同的经济发展水平有所差异。

Based on panel data from 2000 to 2013 in 30 provinces in China,this paper establishes a spatial panel econometric model and a threshold model,analyzes the spatial and threshold effects of inter-provincial carbon emissions,and makes an empirical research on its influencing factors. The results show that there is a significant positive spatial autocorrelation and spatial dependence of inter-provincial carbon emissions and the overall carbon emission in the eastern and central regions is higher than western and northeastern parts. There is a trend of high-high agglomeration in provinces such as Hebei,Shandong,Jiangsu and Shanxi. Spatial Dubin Model shows that industrial structure,urbanization level,and environmental regulation have significant positive effects on carbon emissions,while the degree of opening up has significant negative effects. The impact of economic growth on carbon emissions is ＂N ＂curve. The threshold model of economic growth as a threshold shows that the impact of each factor on carbon emissions at different levels of economic development varies.