基于内生化的政府部门支出的研究

Research on Endogenous Government Expenditure Based on DSGE

本文构建了基于内生化的政府部门支出的DSGE模型，实证分析了1992—2016年间政策冲击对经济波动及各经济变量的影响。研究发现：（1）内生化模型各经济变量受冲击及响应程度相对于外生化模型表现出较为强劲的趋势；（2）增加政府投资支出正向冲击，短期内私人投资下表现出挤出效应，长期内为挤入效应；（3）增加劳动税税率和资本税税率冲击，短期内都会降低私人就业、消费、投资和产出，中长期内征收资本税最终对私人消费的冲击更大。

This paper constructs a DSGE model based on endogenous government expenditure, and analyzes the impact of policy shocks on economic fluctuations and economic variables in 1992 - 2016. The results show that ： （ 1 ） The impact and response degree of each economic variable in the endogenous model showed a relatively strong trend compared with the external biochemical model. （2） By increasing government investment spending, private investment appears crowding - out effect in the short term, crowding - in effect in the long term. （3） The increase of the labor tax and capital tax rates will reduces private consumption, investment and employment, output in the short term, and a medium long term capital tax has bigger impact on private consumption in the end.