管理者过度自信与股价崩盘风险

Managerial Overconfidence and Stock Price Crash Risk

近年来，新浪财经、微博、今日头条等媒体平台频频曝出公司股价暴跌事件，引起的股市震荡对投资者的财富和资本市场的健康发展带来了损害。本文从行为金融理论出发，研究管理者过度自信与股价崩盘风险的关系。研究发现，管理者过度自信会增加公司股价崩盘风险。进一步结合CEO权力这一个人特征以及会计稳健性这一公司特征，探讨其对管理者过度自信与股价崩盘风险之间关系的影响，发现高强度的CEO权力和薄弱的会计稳健性会加大管理者过度自信对股价崩盘风险的负面影响。文章丰富和拓展了管理者过度自信和股价崩盘风险的相关研究，对企业管理者聘任决策和公司治理具有一定的启示。

This study examines the association between managerial overconfidence and future stock price crash risk. Overconfidence managers overestimate the returns to their investment projects and misperceive negative net present value （NPV） projects as value creating. They also ignore or explain away privately observed negative feedback. As a result ,negative NPV projects are kept for too long and their bad performance accumulates,which can lead to stock price crashes. Using a large sample of firms for the period 2007 -2016 ,we find that firms with overconfident managers have higher stock price crash risk than finns with less overconfident managers. The impact of managerial overconfidence on crash risk is more pronounced when the CEO is more dominant in the top management team. Finally,it appears that the effect of managerial overconfidence on crash risk is less pronounced for firms with more conservative accounting policies.