劳动力外出务工对农村老年人劳动时间供给的影响研究——基于CFPS2010数据的分析

The Influence of Labor Migration on Labor Time Supply of Rural Elderly——Based on the Analysis of 2010 CFPS Data

家庭劳动力外出务工带来了农村劳动分工和劳动供给结构的改变。研究基于2010年中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）数据,并结合劳动供给理论,引入村外出务工劳动力比例作为工具变量,通过构建IV-Tobit模型实证分析了家庭劳动力外出务工对农村老年人劳动供给时间的影响。研究发现：农村老年人的平均劳动时间较长,占一天时间的近1/4,家务劳动时间多于农业劳动时间;家庭外出务工劳动力数量越多,农村老年人的总劳动时间、家务劳动时间和农业劳动时间越长;另外,老年人的劳动时间还受到年龄、性别、教育水平、耕地面积、社会保险等多方面因素的影响。

Family labor migration has brought about a change in the labor division and the structure of labor supply in rural areas.Based on the 2010 CFPS data and the labor supply theory,the study introduced the proportion of village labor migration as an instrumental variable,and then constructed Tobit and IV-Tobit models to empirically analyze the influence of labor migration on labor time supply of rural elderly.The study found that the average labor time of the rural elderly is long,accounting for nearly 1/4 of one day＇s time,and the time spent on housework is more than that of agricultural labor;the more the number of family members working outside,the longer the labor time of rural elderly;in addition,the labor time of the rural elderly is also affected by many factors such as age,gender,educational level,cultivated area and social insurance.