中国经济增长方式转变的影响因素及路径选择

Affecting Factors and Path Selection of Transformation of Economic Growth Pattern in China

经济增长方式向以全要素生产率驱动的集约型增长转变是在经济新常态下谋求高质量发展的必然要求。以经济增长集约化水平作为反映经济增长方式转变的维度,基于对经济增长方式转变机理的分析,从资源配置效率与微观生产效率层面选取影响因素,利用中国2003—2015年30省区数据,运用动态面板广义矩估计进行实证分析发现:人力资本、技术引进、对外经济开放、制度安排与经济增长集约化水平显著正相关,技术创新、产业结构对经济增长集约化水平的影响并不显著;各因素对经济增长集约化水平的影响效应呈现出区域差异,空间异质性因素为产业结构、人力资本、技术创新、技术引进,空间一致性因素为对外经济开放、制度安排,因此,东、中、西部经济增长方式转变的路径与逻辑不尽相同。

The transformation of economic growth pattern to intensive growth driven by total factor productivity is the inevitable requirement for high quality development. Taking the intensity level of economic growth as a reflection of the transformation of economic growth pattern and based on the theoretical analysis of transformation mechanism, influencing factors were selected at the levels of resource allocation efficiency and micro production efficiency. Using the provincial panel data and dynamic panel estimation of generalized method of moments, the empirical results found that there was a significant positive correlation between the intensity level of economic growth and human capital, technology import, external economic opening, and institutional arrangement. The impact of technological innovation and industrial structure on the intensity level of economic growth was not significant. But the effect of various factors on the intensity level of economic growth showed regional differences. The spatial heterogeneous factors were industrial structure, human capital, technology import and technological innovation. The spatial coherence factors were external economic opening and institutional arrangement. Therefore, the path and logic of the transformation of economic growth pattern in East, Central and West China should not be the same.