要素投入、全要素生产率与“中等收入陷阱”的跨越

Factor Inputs,Total Factor Productivity and Avoiding Falling into Middle Income Trap

全要素生产率(TFP)是解释国别、地区间发展差距的最主要因素。本文实证结果表明,2008～2015年TFP对我国经济增长平均贡献仅约19%,较2001～2007年大幅下滑近20个百分点,这对于我国顺利跨越"中等收入陷阱"造成的威胁不容忽视。进而,在对未来10年高收入水平国家的阈值、汇率、人口数进行科学预测的基础上,本文对我国跨越"中等收入陷阱"问题进行情景分析,结果表明,即使最乐观的情景下,要保证在平均年限内跨越"上中等收入陷阱",TFP对经济增长的贡献至少需达到30.9%,未来需高度重视TFP在跨越"中等收入陷阱"的作用。

Total factor productivity（TFP） is the most important factor in explaining the gap between countries and regions. The empirical results show that the average contribution of TFP to China＇s economic growth in 2008 -2015 was only about 19%, which was nearly 20 percentage points lower than that in 2001 -2007. That can not be neglected for avoiding falling into the ＂middle income trap ＂ in China. Then, based on the scientific forecast of the threshold of high - income countries, exchange rate and population in China in the next 10 years, this paper analyzes the situation of stepping over the＂middle - income trap＂ in China The results show that even in the most optimistic scenario, the average contribution of TFP to economic growth should be at least 30.9%. Great attentions should be paid to the role of total factor productivity.