舰艇编队电磁态势预测的动态贝叶斯网络方法

Method of dynamic bayesian network for warship formation electromagnetic situation forecast

对敌舰艇编队进行电磁态势预测是我方指挥员选择电子战作战方法、制定电子战资源分配方案的基础.引入DBN算法实现电磁态势预测过程中大量不确定、不精确、不完全的知识表示与推理,在分析舰艇编队电磁攻防事件类型基础上,依据事件间因果关系构造了舰艇编队电磁态势预测DBN模型,研究了DBN的推理算法.理论分析和实验结果表明:该方法具有较高的预测准确性,能在一定程度上为指挥员电子战决策提供辅助支持.

Electromagnetic situation forecast of enemy’s warship formation is an important base for our commander elect electronic warfare operational methods and resource allocation. In order to deal with uncertain imprecise incomplete knowledge representation and reasoning in the process of electromagnetic situation forecast, DBN method is proposed. Based on analyzing electronic warfare events of warship formation, DBN for electromagnetic situation forecast was established by causality between electronic warfare events, and the reasoning algorithm of DBN was researched. Theoretical analysis and experimental results show that this method has preferably forecast veracity, can provide reference for warship formation command’s decision-making in electronic warfare.