用马尔柯夫链预测居民六年的消费性支出结构

Forecasting nonproductive expenditure structure of Changchun townsfolk in 6 years Markov chain

利用长春市居民1998、1999连续两年的收、支数量变化,借助于马尔柯夫链的无后效性性质,预测2000~2005年6年的8项支出量。支出的基本特征是生活类支出的下降趋势和文化教育、交通通讯类支出的增加趋势。这表明居民消费观念的转变以及对社会发展认识的提高。居民的文化水平、文明修养程度所产生的支出效应是促进经济发展、推动收支稳定平衡的重要因素和条件。

Using the non-aftereffect property of Markov chain and statistics of annual incomings and outgoings of Changchun townsfolk in 1998 and 1999,annual outgoing of 8 terms from 2000 to 2005 are forecasted,in which the key factors are outgoings' descending in daily life and increasing in education,traffic and telecommunication.This indicates the townsfolk's shift in consumption concept and enhancement in realization of socioeconomic development.