1978～2015年长江经济带水稻生产时空变化特征分析

Spatiotemporal variation characteristics of rice production in Yangtze River economic belt from 1978 to 2015

运用生产集中度分析、优势指数分析及GIS空间重心分析等方法,研究1978～2015年长江经济带水稻生产的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)就数量而言,改革开放以来长江经济带水稻播种面积显著缩减,总产量整体呈波动上升趋势,单产水平则稳步提高;(2)就空间格局而言,水稻播种面积呈"东缩中扩西平"的格局,总产量呈"东减中增西平"的格局;(3)受规模优势的影响,水稻生产重心总体呈"西进"趋势,但重心仍保持在长江中下游地区。基于上述研究结果,提出了通过市场加政策宏观调控生产,稳定下游播种面积,提高中上游单产水平的政策建议,从而保证长江经济带水稻生产稳固发展。

The spatiotemporal variation characteristics of rice production in Yangtze River economic belt from 1978 to2015 were studied by production concentration analysis,advantage index analysis and GIS spatial center of gravity analysis.The results showed that：（1）In terms of quantity,rice planting area was reduced significantly,and the total production increased in the fluctuation in Yangtze River economic belt since the reform and opening-up.Meanwhile,the yield level was elevated steadily.（2）In terms of spatial pattern,the rice planting area was reduced in eastern regions,expanded in midland and kept stability in western regions.The trend of total production distribution was similar to that of rice area.（3） Due to the influence of scale advantage in midland,rice production center of gravity moved westward as a whole.However,it remained in the middle and lower area of Yangtze River valley.Based on the results,it is suggested that market and policy should be integrated in production macro-control,stabilizing the rice planting area in downstream regions,improving the yield level in middle and upper regions to ensure the stable development of rice production in Yangtze River economic belt.