战争成本、关系身份与秩序变迁——以东亚传统华夷秩序解体为例

Costs of War,Relational Identity and Changes of Order: A Case Study of the Disintegration of the Traditional Chinese-Foreign Order in East Asia

在国际关系历史沿革中,权力转移引发的结构性压力是影响秩序变迁的前提和动力。在此前提下,特定历史阶段大国战争成本与大国间通过互动建构的关系身份认知成为影响地区秩序变迁方式的主要变量。当区域内崛起国与霸权国处于权力转移的持平或接近阶段时,如果主导国与崛起国中至少一方认为战争成本可以承担,且在互动建构了彼此间的敌对关系身份时,容易引发崛起国发起的"争夺霸权"战争或霸权国先发制人的"预防性战争",进而导致地区秩序的暴力变迁。日本崛起引发的东亚权力结构调整是推动东亚秩序变迁的结构性前提,受该时期大国间战争成本相对较低及中日恶性互动导致敌对身份认知影响,东亚传统华夷秩序最终以暴力变迁的形式解体。

In the historical evolution of international relations,the structural stress caused by the transfer of power is the premise and impetus that affects the changes of order.Under this premise,the war costs of the major powers and the relational identities perceived through the interaction and construction among the major powers in a particular historical period become the main variables that affect the changing way of the regional order.When the rising country and the hegemonic power in a region are at or close to the stage of the transfer of power,if at least either the dominant country or the rising country believes that the cost of war is bearable and they have interactively constructed a hostile relationship with each other,it is easy to trigger the war of"fighting for hegemony"waged by the rising country or the"preventive war"waged preemptively by the hegemonic power,therefore,leading to a violent change of regional order.The structural adjustment of power triggered by the rise of Japan in East Asia was the structural premise to drive the change of order in East Asia:due to the relatively low cost of war between major powers during that period and the influence of perceived hostile identity caused by the vicious interaction between China and Japan,the traditional Chinese-foreign order in East Asia was disintegrated finally in the form of violent changes.