既有铁路电气化改造原则及综合决策模型研究

Research on the Reform Principle and Integrated Decision Model of Existing Railway Electrification

在综合考虑铁路企业运输效率和效益的基础上,从路网协调、经济效益、应急安全保障、资金保障、环保要求等方面着手,提出了电气化改造基本原则,并构建铁路电气化改造综合决策指标体系。运用投入产出经济模型,分析铁路电气化改造经济合理性,通过线性回归效益评价模型,研究财务内部收益率与可控变量中的工程投资、客货运量密度、油电价比值、人员工资、货运空率以及客货运机车单位能耗对坡度的调整系数之间的关系。以现状铁路柴油、电价为例,实例测算单双线铁路电化改造运量条件,进一步验证了该决策模型的有效性和可行性。

Based on the consideration of the efficiency and efficiency of railway enterprises, the basic principles of electrification reform are proposedfrom the aspects such as road network coordination, economic benefits, emergency security, capital guarantee and environmental protection require-ments. Then the author constructs a comprehensive decision index system for railway electrification. The economic rationality of the railway electrifi-cation is analyzed by using the economic model of input-output. The linear regression model is used to study the relationship between the financialinternal rate of return （FIRR） and the electrification engineering investment, passenger and freight density, oil price, And the relationship betweenu-nit energy consumption of passenger and freight locomotive and the adjustment coefficient of slope. In the end, taking the present situation of railwaydiesel and electricity price as an example, this paper estimates the transportation condition of single and double railway lines and validates the valid-ity and feasibility of the decision model.