人口信息化与人口城镇化协调性及其时空演变

Analysis on the coordination between the population informatization and population urbanization and its spatio-temporal evolution

深入推进工业化、信息化、城镇化和农业现代化(简称"四化")协调发展是推动新时代下中国经济社会转型的关键措施,作为这一新发展理念的重要组成部分,促进"以人为本"的信息化和城镇化协调发展对转型时期的中国具有重要的现实意义。但目前关于人口信息化和人口城镇化协调发展的相关研究还处于初步阶段,亟待加强。人口城镇化和人口信息化协调发展不仅是现阶段的现实需要,也是推动中国"新型智慧城市"建设的重要战略方向。本文通过构建人口信息化和人口城镇化的协调度模型,对中国各省市/区2001—2016年人口信息化和人口城镇化协调度进行了动态评价与分析。研究发现:(1)中国各地区人口信息化和人口城镇化协调关系不断优化,已经逐步由不协调、不和谐、低协调向弱协调、中协调和强协调转变。(2)各地区人口信息化和人口城镇化协调度程度内部存在显著的差异,具体大致表现为东、中和西部呈现梯度递减的空间分布规律,但各地区人口信息化和人口城镇化协调度差异呈现明显的δ-收敛和β-收敛。(3)人口信息化和人口城镇化协调程度和地区经济发展具有密切的联系,总体来看,考察期间内人口信息化与人口城镇化协调度对经济增长影响的弹性系数显著正,而从地区来看,东部地区人口信息化与人口城镇化协调度对经济增长的贡献程度要显著高于中西部地区,在考虑内生性问题后,这一结论仍然成立。本研究旨在为评估我国人口信息化和人口城镇化协调发展提供一定的定量依据,从而为新时代下"新型智慧城市"建设奠定一定的科学决策基础。

Thoroughly making efforts to promote the coordinated development of industrialization, informatization, urbanization and agricultural modernization （ referred to as the ‘four modernizations＇ ） is the key measure of China＇ s eeononfie and social transformation under the new era. As an important part of this new development concept, to promote ‘peopleoriented＇ the informatization and urbanization coordinated development in the transition period of China has important practical significance. However, at present, relevant studies on the coordinated development of population informatization and population urbanization are still in the prelinfinary stage and need to be strengthened. The coordinated development of population urbanization and population informatization is not only a realistic need at the present stage, but also an important strategic direction to promote the construction of China＇ s ‘new smart city＇. This paper constructed a model of coordination degree of population informationpopulation urbanization, and then analysed and evaluated the dynamic coordination degree between the population informatization and population urbanization from 2001 to 2016 of the provinces and cities in China. Main conclusions are as follows： ①China＇s regional population informatization and population urbanization coordination has been optimized and it already gradually changed from noncoordination, disharmony and low coordination to weak, medium and strong coordination, respectively. ②There are significant differences in coordination degree for China＇ s population informatization and population urbanization and it has a gradient decrease in space distribution from east and middle to the west, but the differences of the coordination degree of population urbanization and population information present obvious gconvergence and β-convergence. ③Coordination degree of population informatization and population urbanization is closely related to the regional economic development. In general, there is a close relationship between the coordination degree of population informatization and population urbanization and economic development and its elastic coefficient is significantly positive. The coordination degree of population informatization and population urbanization in east China has significant higher contribution to the economic growth than that in the central and western regions. This conclusion remains stable after considering endogeneity. This study is to provide a quantitative basis for evaluating the coordinated development between the population informatization and population urbanization, and to lay a certain scientific decisionmaking foundation for the construction of ‘new smart city＇ in the new era.