咸阳市农民气候变化感知及适应性行为分析

Analysis of Perception and Adaptive Behaviors of Farmers to Climatic Changes in Xianyang

基于问卷调查和实测气象数据,分析了咸阳市农民对气候变化感知及适应对策选择倾向。结果表明:(1) 34年来咸阳市气温呈现缓慢升高趋势,平均增速为0.68℃/10 a;降水存在波动减少趋势,平均减速为32.53 mm/10 a。(2)80%农民的气候感知与实际情况基本吻合,但感知差异及其影响因素较复杂。(3)农民应对气候变化而采取的适应性行为主要是关注气候变化、更换农作物品种和调整种植结构或退出种植业。

According to the questionnaire and measured meteorological data, the author analyzed the perception and adaptive behaviors of farmers to climatic changes in Xianyang. The results indicated that： （1） In the past 34 years, the air temperature in Xianyang exhibited a slow rising trend at the average growth rate of 0.68 ℃/10 a, while the rainfall showed a dynamic decreasing trend at the average decline rate of 32.53 mm/10 a; （2） The perception of 80% farmers to climatic changes was basically identical to the actual situation, but the differences in perception and its influencing factors were more complicated; （3） The adaptive behaviors of farmers to climatic changes mainly included paying close attention to the climatic changes, replacing crop varieties, adjusting planting structure or retreating from crop production.