HBV水文模型在洋县酋水河流域洪水致灾临界面雨量中的应用

Application of HBV Hydrological Model in Critical Surface Rainfall of Flood Disaster in Qiushui River Basin of Yangxian County

以洋县酋水河流域为例,基于HBV水文模型,利用降水、水位、流量、温度等数据,建立降水-流量-水位关系,分别以30年一遇、50年一遇、100年一遇作为河流设计的警戒、保证和漫顶水位标准,从而确定洪水不同等级的致灾临界面雨量。利用2004～2013年气象水文数据对模型进行参数率定和验证,并根据典型洪水过程对参数进行了优化,最终得到率定期和验证的Nash系数分别为0.74、0.78,表明HBV模型在该地区有着很好的适用性。根据前期不同水位下确定的不同临界面雨量指标,发现随着前期水位的升高临界面雨量会随之减小,且呈现非线性响应特征。通过历史灾情验证,发现HBV模型可为酋水河流域洪水监测预警提供技术支持。

Taking the Qiushui river basin in Yangxian county as an example, using the data of rainfall, water level, flow and temperature, this article built the rainfall-flow-water level relationship based on the HBV hydrological model. Setting “once every 30 years”, “once every 50 years”, and “once every 100 years” as the warning, guarantee, and overtopping standards of river water level design respectively, this paper determined the critical surface rainfall causing different levels of flood disaster. The parameters of HBV model were determined and verified by using the meteorological and hydrological data during 2004-2013, and these parameters were optimized according to the typical flood process. The determined and verified Nash coefficients were 0.74 and 0.78 respectively, showing that the HBV model has a good application in this area. According to the determined critical surface rainfall indexes at different water levels in earlier period, the critical surface rainfall decreased as the water level in earlier period rose, revealing a non-linear response characteristic. Through the historical flood disaster verification, it is found that the HBV model can provide technical support for flood monitoring and early warning in the Qiushui river basin.