新常态下货币政策规则的对比研究

The comparison and research on monetary policy rules in new normal

本文构建具有名义粘性的新凯恩斯DSGE模型,并通过数值模拟对比前瞻型与后顾型货币政策规则的经济影响。目的是考察在"新常态"时期,不同货币政策规则下外生冲击对经济变量的影响的大小,从而对货币政策规则的稳健性与有效性进行检验。本文利用参数校准与数值模拟在三种不同货币政策规则下,对各个外生冲击的脉冲响应函数进行模拟。结果显示,前瞻型货币政策规则在熨平利率波动与通胀波动方面具有显著优势,并且能够自动平稳外生冲击对经济变量的影响。不过,在产出方面,前瞻型与后顾型货币政策规则具有同样效应。

This paper constructs a new Keynesian DSGE model,and compares the economic influence of the forwardlooking and backward-looking monetary policy rules by numerical simulation.The purpose is to examine the impact of exogenous shocks on economic variables under the different monetary policy rules in new normal so as to inspect the stability and efficiency of monetary policy rules.In this paper,the impulse response function of various exogenous shocks is simulated under the condition of three different monetary policy rules by using parameter calibration and numerical simulation.The results show that the forward-looking monetary policy rule has a significant advantage in smoothing the fluctuation of interest rate and inflation,and it can automatically and steadily the impact of external shock on economic variables.However,in terms of production,forward-looking and backward-looking monetary policy rules have the same effect.