我国省会城市工业集聚的最优规模研究——基于全要素生产率最大化的视角

The study on optimal industry agglomeration in the provincial cities of China——from the perspective ofmaximizing TFP

产业集聚是影响全要素生产率的重要因素。通过使用2008—2015年的我国省会城市面板数据,估计了全要素生产率和工业密度之间的二次函数关系,并根据拟合函数的一阶求导条件进一步估计了我国省会城市工业集聚的最优规模。拟合结果显示,我国省会城市工业集聚与全要素生产率之间的拟合函数是一个开口向下的抛物线,有一个极大值的拐点。因此,从全要素生产率最大化的角度,我国工业集聚水平存在一个最优规模,二次函数拟合的最优规模边界大约为7.57—8.82之间,此时集聚中心的工业在商务成本的压力下开始考虑向外围转移。

Industrial agglomeration is the important factor in influencing the total factor productivity(TFP).Using 2008—2015 panel data of provincial cities in China,the paper estimates the quadratic function relation between TFP and industrial density,and further calculates the optimal agglomeration in the provincial cities in China according to first order derivative condition of fitting function.The result shows that the fitting function of industry agglomeration in provincial cities of China and TFP shapes an open-down parabola,and with a maximized inflection point.Therefore,there is an optimal scale to the industry agglomeration in China from the perspective of maximizing TFP.The optimal boundary of agglomeration for fitting function is in 7.57—8.82.This time,the industry in agglomeration center begins to think about transferring to the outside part under the pressure of business cost.