风电机组主轴系统实时可靠性分析与预测方法研究

The Research on Real-time Reliability Analysis and Prediction to Spindle Bearing System of Wind Turbine

对于历史数据不完整的风电机组系统,运行过程中需要对系统和设备进行实时可靠性分析和预测。以风电机组主轴轴承系统为例,以参数偏差为其量化指标,建立实时的可靠性评价模型,对风电机组主轴轴承系统进行实时状态评价和可靠性分析。同时,基于灰色预测法对监测参数进行趋势预测。根据趋势预测结果,结合实时可靠性分析所确定的系统当前状态评价结果,及时预警并识别故障,确定设备维修方案,保障风电机组良好运行。

As to the incomplete historical data,it is necessary to make real-time reliability analysis and prediction for wind turbine system in the process of operation.This article takes the wind turbine spindle bearing system as the research example,makes the quantification index by parameters deviation,and establishes the analysis model to set up the real-time reliability analysis and the real-time running status of units and equipment evaluation to the spindle bearing system of wind turbine.At the same time,the monitoring parameters are predicted based on grey prediction method.Based on the current status evaluation results and with the evaluating result of real-time analysis and prediction,immediate warning and identification of failure can be realized timely.The equipment maintenance plan is determined,and the good operation of wind power has been ensured.