1961~2010年中国大陆地面气候要素变化特征分析

ANALYSIS OF VARIATIONS OF CLIMATIC ELEMENTS IN SURFACE GROUND OF CHINA'S MAINLAND DURING 1961-2010

利用1961~2010年全国大陆地面468个气象台站的气温、降水和日照时数等资料,采用Jones等提出的计算区域平均气候时间序列的方法对全国数据进行加权平均处理,采用线性趋势、反距离加权插值、Morlet小波分析、Mann-Kendall法,分析了我国大陆地面近50a来各气候要素的变化特征。研究表明:年平均气温、年平均最低气温、年平均最高气温、年极端最低气温、年极端最高气温均呈显著上升趋势,年平均温度差、年极端温度差、年平均日照时数均呈显著减少趋势;年平均气温、年平均降水、年平均最低气温、年平均最高气温、年极端最低气温、年极端最高气温、年平均温度差、年极端温度差、年平均日照时数分别存在14、26、14、14、25、16、26、25和25a左右的变化主周期;在0.05的置信度水平下,年平均最高气温、年极端最低气温、年极端最高气温、年极端温度差、年平均降水和年平均日照时数均发生突变,其分别在1996、1981、1997、1975、1983和1982年发生突变,其余要素均未发生突变。分析还发现,各气候要素的变化主周期分别存在一定的相似性,突变时间也存在一定联系。

Global climate change affects not only the environment human live in,but also affects the development of word economic and social progress.The IPCC published its fourth report(AR4)in 2007and said that in the last 100years the surface temperature of the global had increased by 0.56-0.92equally.China is one of the countries where the meteorological disasters are the most severe in the world.All kinds of extreme climate events have made great loss to our country.With the background of global climate warming,more and more extreme climate events have happened.It is necessary to monitor the climate in our country,pay more attention to the anomaly characteristics and analysis of all kinds of weather events.Relevant works may provide some references for future disaster prevention and mitigation measures,and also for a comprehensive assessment of China climate change. Based on 468meteorological stations data,the variation characteristics of climatic factors in China during 1961-2010were analyzed,using linear regression,Inverse Distance Weighted interpolation method,Morlet wavelet and Mann-Kendall methods.The results show that temperature including annual mean temperature,minimum temperature,maximum temperature,annual extreme minimum temperature and annual extreme maximum temperature displayed a significant increasing trend.The difference between annual mean minimum and maximum temperatures(annual extreme temperatures)as well as sunshine hours exhibited a significantly decreasing trend. Significant cycles in the range of 14a-6a were found to exist for annual mean temperature,minimum temperature,maximum temperature and annual extreme maximum temperature,while cycles in the range of 25a-26awere found to exist for average annual precipitation,annual extreme minimum temperature,mean annual temperature difference,annual extreme temperature difference and average annual sunshine hours.Significant climatic changes were found in several years such as 1996,1981,1997,1975,1983and 1982.Similar cycles and abrupt years suggest possible linkages between those climate factors.