基于改进水生态足迹的水资源环境与经济发展协调性评价——以中原城市群为例

Coordinating Evaluation of Water Resources Environment and Economic Development Based on Improved Water Ecological Footprint:A Case Study of Central Plains Urban Agglomeration

为探索水资源环境和经济发展的协调关系,基于改进的水生态足迹模型,计算中原城市群2001～2016年水量生态足迹和水质生态足迹,从宏观和微观层面构建脱钩评价模型和协调度模型,对区域经济发展和水资源环境协调关系进行研究。研究表明:(1)中原城市群总体水生态足迹表现出波动增加趋势,农业水足迹在水量生态足迹中比重最大,超过50%;(2)地下水质生态足迹和地表水质生态足迹的比例约为4∶3,2001～2010年导致地表水质生态足迹面积最大的污染物是硝态氮,2011～2016年磷是最主要的污染物,而导致地下水质生态足迹的规律较为复杂,由多种污染物交替决定;(3) 2001～2016年,水资源环境和经济发展的协调关系由弱脱钩的不协调和初级协调向强脱钩的中级协调转变,表明中原城市群经济发展和水资源环境的协调性在逐步增强;(4)中原城市群内部各城市水资源环境和经济发展的协调性在时间上表现出逐年增强的趋势,在空间上存在较高的相似性,中原城市群在协调度上的表现优于其在脱钩指数上的表现。

In order to research the coordination relationship between water resources environment and economic development based on the improved water ecological footprint model,we calculated the water ecological footprint and water quality ecological footprint of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration from 2001 to 2016. Continuing further,we constructed the decoupling evaluation model and coordination degree model from the macro and micro levels. Based on the Research on regional economic development and water environment relationship, the research showed that:( 1) the overall water ecological footprint of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration showed an increasing trend of fluctuation,and the agricultural water footprint had the largest proportion of the water ecological footprint,exceeding 50%.( 2) The ratio of groundwater quality ecological footprint to surface water quality ecological footprint was about 4 ∶ 3. The largest pollutant in the surface water quality ecological footprint from 2001 to 2010 was nitrate nitrogen. Phosphorus was the most important pollutant in 2011-2016. The law that governs to the ecological footprint of groundwater was more complicated and determined by the rotation of multiple pollutants.( 3) In the relationship between water resources environment and economic development of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration,most of the years before 2010 were in the stage of weak decoupling and primary coordination. After 2010,the number of strong decoupling years increased significantly,and coordination improved,which was intermediate coordination. From 2001 to 2016,the coordination relationship between water resources environment and economic development was transformed from the uncoordinated weak decoupling and the intermediate coordination of the primary coordination to the strong decoupling indicating that the economic development of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration and the coordination of water resources environment was gradually increasing.( 4) The coordination of water resources environment and economic development among cities within the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration showed a trend which had been steadily increasing from year to year,and there was a high similarity in space. The performance of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration in coordination was better than its performance on the decoupling index.