“水-能-粮”视角下杭嘉湖区域生态系统服务供需测度及政策研究

Evaluation of Ecosystem Services and Its Adaptive Policies in the Hangjiahu Region Under Water-Energy-Food Nexus

生态系统保护与城镇化间的冲突已威胁人类福祉。基于"水-能-粮"纽带视角,研究从供需双侧对太湖流域杭嘉湖区域2000、2005及2010年的产水、固碳以及粮食生产服务进行了测度,并利用空间基尼系数模型、供需指数模型及相关系数模型对其空间异质性进行了评价。结果表明:(1)产水总量先减后增,固碳及粮食生产总量小幅递减,水资源及粮食的需求总量小幅递增,固碳需求则急剧增加;(2)西南部山林地带产水及固碳服务供给显著,粮食生产聚集在东部平原,3种服务的需求均集中于高人口密度区域;(3)3种服务的空间分布基本均衡,但供需匹配度偏低,绝大部分区域的产水服务处于赤字状态,城镇区域固碳压力显著;(4)产水服务与固碳服务呈权衡关系,与粮食生产服务呈协同关系,固碳服务与粮食生产服务之间具有权衡关系,3种服务的需求间呈两两协同关系。可见,"水-能-粮"纽带关系在杭嘉湖区域表现为相互支撑、相互影响的共同体。最后,本研究提出适应性管理政策以改善区域生态系统。

Conflicts between ecosystem conservation and urbanization has threatened the human well-being. This study evaluates both supply and demand of water yield, carbon sequestration, and food production in the Hang-Jia-Hu region in 2000, 2005 and 2010 from perspective of 'Water-Energy-Food' nexus. Spatial Gini-coefficient model, supply-demand ratio model and correlation model are applied to analysis spatial heterogeneities. Results show:(1) The yielding water decreased first and then rebounded, while the total amount of carbon sequestration and food production decreased slightly. The demand of water and food increased slightly, while the demand of carbon sequestration increased sharply.(2) The supply of water and carbon sequestration is significant within the hilly area located in the southwest. While the food production is clustered in the eastern plain. The demand of all three ecosystem services is inevitably concentrated in the densely populated areas.(3) The spatial distribution of evaluated ecosystem services is basically balanced, but the mismatch between supply and demand is prominent. Most areas suffered shortage of water, and urban area had hard pressure of carbon sequestration.(4) Water supply has a 'trade-off' relation with carbon sequestration supply, while a 'synergy' relation with food supply. Carbon sequestration supply is positive with food supply. Demand of all the three ecosystem services is positive with each other. WEF nexus is proved to show an interactive and supportive relationship in the region. Several adaptive polices are promoted to improve the regional ecosystem.