浙江省县域森林生态承载力评价及时空演变分析

County Forest Ecological Carrying Capacity Evaluation and Spatial Analysis in Zhejiang Province

以浙江省71个区县为研究对象,基于PSR(Pressure-State-Response)模型,利用熵权法与专家法确定综合权重,将状态空间法与向量模法相结合计算浙江省县域森林生态承载力,分析比较2001～2016年浙江省县域森林生态承载力的时空分布规律,并结合GIS技术对浙江省县域森林生态承载力等级分布格局进行空间相关性分析。结果表明:浙江省森林生态系统整体上处于适度可载区并且得到了持续改善;林木采伐强度、森林火灾致灾率、单位面积GDP、单位面积工业产值等指标权重最大;浙江省森林生态承载力状况分布不均衡,西南部承载力水平最高,中部次之,浙北地区最低;浙江省森林生态承载力具有显著的空间正相关性和空间聚集性,高-高聚类显著性更强,且大多集中在浙江省西南部地区。

The paper focused on the evalution of county forest ecological carrying capacity of Zhejiang province that based on Pressure-State-Response(PSR) model with entropy weight and expert method to calculate the weight and combined the state-space techniques and vector mode with GIS to analyze the space-time distribution patterns and its spatial correlation of 71 counties from years of 2001 to 2016. As a result, firstly, Zhejiang province’s forest ecological carrying capacity(ZFEC) is in a moderate loading area with continuously improvement in the whole, and the indexes of the tree cutting intensity, forest fire disaster rate, unit area GDP, unit area industrial output value expressed maximum weight. Secondly, the distribution of ZFEC is exceptionally unevenly distributed, with the highest level of carrying capacity in the southwestern part,followed by the middle part and the lowest in the northen part. Finally, the ZFEC shows significant spatial auto correlation and spatial aggregation with the most significant high-high clustering and mainly concentrates in the southwest districts of Zhejiang province.