基于反规划与FLUS模型的城市增长边界划定研究——以重庆市渝北区为例

Delimitation of Urban Growth Boundary Based on Anti-planning and FLUS Model: A Case Study of Yubei District, Chongqing, China

为探索能够兼顾政策规划与自然发展规律的城市增长边界(UGB)划定方法,以重庆市渝北区为例,利用土地利用、社会经济和多种空间规划等数据,通过边际土地利用法测算3种产业转型速率情景下城镇建设用地规模需求,基于反规划理念,引入多规合一与FLUS模型模拟土地利用空间布局,并划定3种产业转型情景下的渝北区刚性、近远期弹性UGB。结果表明:(1)结合多规合一与土地利用现状,人为制定模拟初期土地利用图,能够保证边界划定结果满足规划发展需求;(2)产业转型使渝北区兴隆、古路、石船等镇城市扩张减速,远期弹性UGB划定结果适度紧缩;(3)渝北区刚性UGB依三山布局,剩余可开发总面积59 520.72 hm^2,近期与3种情景下远期弹性UGB划定面积分别为35 781.78、48 343.61、44 731.33、41 061.13 hm^2,未纳入弹性UGB的剩余可开发空间主要位于洛碛、古路镇与双凤桥街道机场用地区。该研究方法考虑了UGB的刚性控制与弹性引导,综合了自上而下的政策因素与自下而上的自然规律因素,是实现生态保障与城市精明增长的有效方法途径。

The purpose of this study is to explore the UGB delimiting method,which can address concerns on both policy planning and the pattern of natural development.Taking Yubei district of Chongqing as the case study area,the study is based on the data of land-use,social economy and multiple spatial planning,and the urban land demands in three different industrial transformation speeds scenes are calculated by the method of'Marginal land-use'.Then based on the idea of'anti-planning',the Multi-plan integration and FLUS model is introduced to explore the land-use distribution,and the rigid UGB,short-term and long-term flexible UGB in three industrial transformation scenes are delimited.The result shows that:1)Artificial initial land-use,which combines Multi-plan integration and land-use status,make the UGB delimiting result adapt to the demand of development planning.2)Industrial transformation slows down the urban-land expansion in Towns of Xinglong,Gulu and Shichuan,and the long-term flexible UGB delimitation result shows a moderate diminish.3)The rigid UGB in Yubei district distributes along the three mountains,and the area of remaining land that can be developed beyond the rigid UGB is 59 520.72 hm^2.The areas of short-term and long-term flexible UGB in three scenes are 35781.780,48 343.61,44 731.33 and 41 061.13 hm^2,respectively.The remaining land neither in rigid UGB nor in flexible UGB mainly distribute in towns of Luoqi,Gulu and the airport area in Shuangfengqiao Street.The methods used in this study take the rigid and flexible concept of UGB into consideration and combines the Top-down politic factors and Down-top natural pattern factors effectually.The UGB delimiting results would make it effective to achieve ecological security and urban smart growth.