土地利用碳排放地域差异下减排责任分摊研究——以武汉城市圈为例

Research on the Liability Sharing of Carbon Emission Reduction Under the Regional Difference of Land Use Carbon Emission——A Case Study in Wuhan Urban Agglomeration

碳减排责任分摊是制定碳减排政策的基础,亦是完善碳交易市场体系的重要一环。为合理明确各区域碳减排责任,从土地利用碳排放地域差异视角入手,兼顾公平与效率原则,构建IFCAM模型,尝试在2020年武汉城市圈碳减排目标下划分各县区的碳减排责任,并对其进行可行性检验,以期为武汉城市圈及相关区域的碳减排责任分摊提供参考。研究发现:(1)武汉城市圈核心城市土地利用碳排放占城市圈的比例超过70%,且整体呈现出核心-外围递减的分布,各地区差异较明显;(2)3E分摊模型虽然提高了城市圈碳排放的公平性,但整体碳排放效率仅为0.54,相比2015年降低了30.77%,需进一步完善;(3)IFCAM模型在维持整体效率为1且不衰减的基础上,兼顾了3E公平原则,使经济发展水平较高地区的碳减排压力减小,而增加经济发展效率较低地区的碳减排压力;(4)检验结果显示基于IFCAM模型的2020年武汉城市圈各县市碳排放强度下降幅度均达标,整体平均碳排放强度下降幅度为19.27%,超过湖北省政府分配的整体18.78%的目标,且分摊结果变异系数较小,整体平均碳排放效率提升,有效的解决了公平和效率的分配问题,具有一定的可行性和科学性。

The liability sharing of carbon emission reduction is the foundation to formulate the carbon emission reduction policy and also the important process to perfect the carbon trading market system.In order to define the liability of regional carbon emission reduction in a reasonable manager,the IFCAM was constructed by beginning with the regional difference of carbon emission in land use and giving considerations to the principles of fairness and efficiency.The liability of carbon emission reduction in each county and district was divided under the carbon emission reduction targets of Wuhan Urban Agglomeration in 2020.And it was conducted the feasibility test,hoping to provide reference for liability sharing of carbon emission reduction in Wuhan Urban Agglomeration and relevant areas.The findings showed that:(1)The proportion of carbon emission of urban land use in Wuhan megalopolis exceeds 70%,showing the core-peripheral diminishing distribution.Each region had the obvious difference;(2)Even if 3 D apportion model improved fairness of carbon emission in the megalopolis,the overall carbon emission efficiency was only 0.54,which was reduced by 30.77%comparing with 2015,thus it should be further improved;(3)The entire efficiency maintained by the IFCAM was 1,which gave considerations to 3 E equity principle on the basis of no decay,thus areas with the higher economic development would reduce the pressure of carbon emission reduction,while areas with the lower economic development would increase the pressure of carbon emission reduction;(4)The inspection findings indicated that based on the IFCAM,the decrease amplitude of carbon emission intensity in each county and city of Wuhan Urban Agglomeration in 2020 could reach the standard.The decrease amplitude of average carbon emission intensity was 19.27%,which exceeding the target(18.78%)distributed by the Hubei Provincial Government.Moreover,the variable coefficient of apportion results was smaller and average carbon emission efficiency was enhanced.The distribution of fairness and efficiency could be solved effectively,showing the feasibility and scientificity.