气候工程对中国不同等级降雨结构的可能影响

Possible Impact of Climate Engineering on Rainfall Structure of Different Grades in China

气候工程作为人类快速有效给地球降温的手段,在应对气候变化的国际谈判中越来成为各界讨论的焦点话题之一。为诊断当前GeoMIP设定的当量下,气候工程不同实施阶段是否对中国降雨结构产生影响。依据中国气象局中央气象台的日降雨强度划分标准,基于BNU^ESM模式的太阳辐射管理气候工程G4实验和RCP4.5情景下非气候工程的0.5°×0.5°空间分辨率日值降水数据,对比分析气候工程实施的3个不同时段,即2010~2099、2020~2069和2070~2099年,中国不同等级降雨雨量和雨日贡献率空间差异特征。结果表明:(1)在气候态上,3个时段两种情景下的中国不同等级降雨结构的气候态高低分异特征具有较好的一致性。气候工程并未改变中国降雨结构的空间高低分异特征。(2)在气候工程与非气候工程差异上,气候工程实施的不同阶段确实可以对中国不同区域的降雨结构产生影响,且不同时段差异性有所不同。(3)在气候工程实施前后差异上,气候工程实施中相比实施后促进了中雨、大雨和总暴雨事件,而抑制了小雨事件。在当前GeoMIP模式设定的当量下,气候工程实施会对中国降雨结构会产生不同层面的影响。

Climate engineering,as a fast and effective means of cooling the earth,has become one of the focuses of discussion in the international negotiations on climate change.To diagnose whether different stages of climate engineering have an impact on rainfall structure in China under the current GeoMIP model.According to the daily rainfall intensity classification standard of the Central Meteorological Observatory of China Meteorological Administration,0.5°×0.5°spatial resolution daily precipitation data of the solar radiation management climate engineering G4 experiment and RCP 4.5 scenario based on the BNU-ESM model,the spatial differences of rainfall amounts and rainfall days contribution rate of different grades in China during the three different periods of implementation of climate engineering,namely,2010-2099,2020-2069 and 2070-2099,are compared and analyzed.The results show that:Firstly,in the climatic state,there is a good consistency between the climatic state of different grades rainfall in China in three periods under the two scenarios.Climate engineering has not changed the spatial characteristics of rainfall structure in China.Secondly,in the differences between climate engineering and non-climate engineering,different stages of implementation of climate engineering can indeed have an impact on rainfall structure in different regions of China,and the differences are different in different periods.Thirdly,in the difference before and after the implementation of climate engineering,the implementation of climate engineering promote moderate rainfall,heavy rainfall and total rainstorm events,but restrained light rainfall events.Under the current GeoMIP model,the implementation of climate engineering will have different impacts on rainfall structure in China.