浙江省土地利用非农化与城市化的空间关系计量

Multi-scale Spatial Correlation Between Land-use Non-agriculturalization and Urbanization in Zhejiang Province

在中国土地制度与发达地区经济双重转型驱动下,沿海地区城市化和土地利用非农化的相互关系及其演变呈现出的独特性亟待探讨。基于2005、2010、2015年浙江省县域土地利用信息,定量分析2005~2015年浙江省县域综合城市化、土地利用非农化的分异及重点县建设用地转化源与流,继而用泰尔指数和双变量空间自相关法探究浙江省城市化水平与土地利用非农化的空间关联模式。研究发现:(1)浙江县域城市化水平快速提升并逐渐实现空间均衡,形成杭州、宁波、金华、温州等市辖区为核心的团状城市化态势;建设用地变化重心从中、北部平原地区向东南沿海平原县/区迁移,但仍以市辖区增幅最为明显,农转建(农用地转为建设用地)土地的增减是导致浙江县域建设用地大幅度变化的关键原因;(2)浙江省土地非农化与城市化的空间正相关性显著增加、空间分异态势凸显,呈现出高集聚区由浙中转向浙东沿海及岛屿;总体看,高-高型多分布在浙北平原,而低-低型则从沿海向内陆扩展;(3)浙江省综合城市化与土地利用非农化存在显著尺度效应,且相关性随空间尺度增加而增加。研究揭示了经济发达省份城市化进入稳定期阶段土地非农化与城市化的空间相关性,对推进土地利用规划与城市规划协同性、因地制宜实施农转建土地流转和跨行政区置换具有重要指引价值。

Land-use is an important carrier and intuitive result of urbanization process.Driven by the dual transformation of China’s land system and developed regional economy,the interrelationship between urbanization and land use non-agriculturalization in coastal areas and its evolution are uniquely explored.Based on the county land use information of Zhejiang Province in 2005,2010 and 2015,this paper quantitatively analyzes the differentiation of county comprehensive urbanization,land use non-agriculturalization and the conversion source and flow of key county construction land in 2005-2015.Then use the Theil index and the bivariate spatial autocorrelation method to explore the spatial correlation model of urbanization level and land use non-agriculturalization in Zhejiang Provinces.(1)The level of urbanization in Zhejiang County is rapidly increasing and gradually achieving spatial balance and forming a group-like urbanization situation centered on Hangzhou,Ningbo,Jinhua,Wenzhou and other municipal districts;the focus of construction land changes from the central and northern plains to the southeast coastal plains.However,the increase in the municipal area is still the most obvious.The increase or decrease of land for agricultural conversion is the key reason for the large-scale change in construction land in Zhejiang County;(2)The spatial positive correlation between land non-agriculturalization and urbanization in Zhejiang Province has increased significantly,and the spatial differentiation situation has been highlighted.It has shown that the high-aggregation area has shifted from the middle part to the east coast of Zhejiang and the islands.In general,the high-high type is mostly distributed in the northern Zhejiang Plain,while the low-low type extends from the coastal to the inland.(3)There is a significant scale effect of comprehensive urbanization and land use non-agriculturalization in Zhejiang Province,and the correlation difference increases with spatial scale.This study reveals the spatial correlation between urbanization and land non-agriculturalization in the period of urbanization of economically developed provinces.It has important guiding value for promoting the synergy of land use planning and urban planning,and implementing land transfer and trans-administrative area replacement according to local conditions.