破解养老金支付危机:“单独二孩”政策有效吗?——以城镇职工基本养老保险为例

A Solution to Payment Crisis of China's Pension System:Is the Two-child Policy Effective? Evidence from Basic Pension Insurance System for Urban Employees

文章基于我国目前已有29个省份启动"单独二孩"政策的现实背景,在理论分析的基础上运用精算模型,对该政策影响城镇职工基本养老保险统筹基金财务状况的效应进行了系统的实证研究。研究表明:第一,在生育政策不变情况下,统筹基金分别在2047年和2063年开始出现当期赤字和累计赤字。第二,如果10%-50%符合规定的夫妇生育二孩,则统筹基金的财务状况会得到改善;相对于生育政策不变时,缴费率可以在从20%下降至18.06%-19.57%的同时,仍可维持原有的财务状况不变。第三,如果生育二孩夫妇的比例上升至60%-100%,则缴费率甚至可以在下降至16.55%-17.7%的同时,仍可维持生育政策不变下的财务状况。因此,"单独二孩"政策有助于缓解养老保险的支付压力,但是该政策的效果要受到生育意愿和政府执行力度的影响。

At present,there are 29 provinces implementing the two-child policy in China.Based on theoretical analysis and actuarial models,this paper makes a systematically empirical study of the effect of the two-child policy on the financial situation of pooling fund of basic pension insurance system for urban employees.It comes to the conclusions as follows:firstly,under the unchanged fertility policy,the current and accumulated account deficits of the pooling fund will arise in 2047 and 2063respectively;secondly,if 10%-50%of qualified couples bear a second child,the financial situation of pooling fund will be improved;and compared with the unchanged fertility policy,the premium rate can be reduced from 20%to 18.06%-19.57%,and the original financial situation will remain unchanged;thirdly,if the ratio of those couples having a second child rises to 60%-100%,the premium rate can further be reduced to 16.55%-17.7%and the financial situation under the unchanged fertility policy will still remain unchanged.All the conclusions above mentioned have passed sensitivity tests.Therefore,the two-child policy helps to alleviate the payment pressure of the pension insurance system,but its effectiveness is affected by the child-bearing willingness and government enforcement.