基于DSGE模型的“污染治理政策”比较与选择——针对不同公共政策的动态分析

The Comparison and Selection of Pollution Governance Policies Based on a DSGE Model:A Dynamic Analysis Based on Different Public Policies

文章以污染治理的公共政策为重要变量构建了我国的宏观动态一般均衡模型(DSGE模型),并采用中国的宏观经济数据,以数值模拟的方法比较了"许可证"制度、"庇古税"和协议规则的环境污染治理效应,还基于福利分析方法进行了政策选择研究。研究发现:(1)提高许可证的价格后,整个社会的环境质量趋于下降;(2)"污染税"政策对提高环境质量具有较大的影响效应,持续时间长达30年,且协议规则也能够提高环境的质量,其影响呈现扁平的倒U形态;(3)在不同的体制下,政府"控污支出"对环境质量的影响形态大致相似,其对社会总产出的影响也较相似;(4)在同时考虑"许可证"制度和"污染税"制度的情况下,"污染税"的政策效应会被削弱,但此时"许可证"制度会短暂地拉升经济中的总产出,而在同时考虑协议规则和"污染税"制度的情况下,"污染税"的政策效应也会被削弱,但协议规则的政策影响变化不大;(5)当经济系统的不确定性因素增加时,"许可证"制度下的社会福利是增加的,但其加大了消费的变动程度。

This paper constructs a macro DSGE model in China by regarding public policies of pollution governance as an important variable and employs numerical simulation method to make a comparison of environmental pollution governance effects among pollution permits,Pigou tax and Kyoto Protocal rules for emissions based on Chinese macro-economic data.Then based on welfare analysis,it makes a study on policy selection.It comes to the following conclusions:firstly,the increase in prices of permits results in the reduction in environmental quality of the whole society;secondly,the pollution-tax policy has stronger effect on the rise in environmental quality and its duration is as long as 30 years while the Kyoto Protocol rules also can improve environmental quality and their effect on environmental quality is featured by flat inverted-U shape;thirdly,under different systems,government anti-pollution expenditures have approximately similar effects on environmental quality and also roughly like effects on total social output;fourthly,under No.1 mixed system considering pollution permits and pollution tax,the policy effect of pollution tax is weakening,but pollution permits briefly improve total economic output;and under No.2mixed system considering Kyoto Protocol rules and pollution tax,the policy effect of pollution tax is also weakening,but the policy effect of pollution permits has small change;fifthly,the rise in economic uncertainty gives rise to the increase in social welfare of pollution permits but greater changes in consumption.