TPP的投资区位效应及非TPP亚太国家的应对措施——基于多国自由资本模型的分析

TPP's Investment Location Domino Effect and Non-TPP Asia-Pacific Countries' Countermeasures:Analysis Based on R-FC Model

文章以跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(TPP)为基础,结合区域全面经济伙伴关系(RCEP),引入多国自由资本模型,数值模拟了TPP的投资区位效应及非TPP亚太国家的应对措施。结果表明:(1)TPP的形成会导致双重投资区位效应:在TPP内部,规模大的国家将拥有更多的工业品市场份额,成为核心国;在TPP外部,随着TPP内部贸易自由度的提高,外部国家的投资会流向TPP成员国,进一步放大投资区位效应。双重投资区位效应左右着亚太地区国际生产布局。(2)作为应对措施,RCEP的提前达成将是一个不错的现实选择;若RCEP与TPP同时达成,则具有TPP和RCEP双重身份的国家获益最大。因此,中国应积极同TPP成员国签订双边或多边FTA,主动参与东盟主导的RCEP,最大限度地减少TPP的冲击。

Based on the Trans-Pacific Partnership(TPP)and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP),this paper numerically simulates TPP's investment location domino effect and non-TPP Asia-Pacific countries' countermeasures by the introduction of R-FC model.It reaches the following conclusions:firstly,the formation of TPP leads to dual investment location domino effect,namely in internal TPP,large countries possess greater industrial product market share,thereby becoming the core countries,and outside the TPP,the investment of non-TPP countries flows into to the members of TPP with the rise in trade freedom inside the TPP,further amplifying the investment location domino effect;the dual investment location domino effect determines the international production allocation in the Asia-Pacific region;secondly,as the countermeasure,the accomplishment of RCEP in advance will be a good real choice;if RCEP and TPP are reached simultaneously,the countries as TPP and RCEP members will benefit most.Therefore,in order to minimize the impact of the TPP,China should actively sign a bilateral or multilateral FTA with TPP members and initiatively participate in RCEP led by ASEAN.