铁路建设对经济罢工的缓解作用——基于中国近代经济史的定量研究

The Alleviation Role of Railway Construction in Economic Strikes:An Empirical Analysis Based on Modern Chinese Economic History

随着中国近代工业的发展,工人的经济罢工逐渐成为近代中国重要的社会和经济问题。文章基于近代中国交通基础设施不断得到改善的事实,从劳动力市场整合的角度,运用1861-1910年的省际面板数据,考察了铁路建设对经济罢工的作用效应和机制。研究表明:(1)铁路建设对工人的经济罢工具有缓解作用,铁路里程每增加1%,经济罢工发生的概率会下降50%左右;(2)铁路的兴建使得劳动力转移成本下降,从而促进了地区间劳动力要素的自由流动,进而减小了地区间的工资差异,最终缓解了经济罢工。文章所提供的历史经验为当前我国如何利用交通基础设施建设来缓解社会冲突和构建和谐社会提供了借鉴。

With the development of early industrialization in modern China,economic strikes by employees increasingly have been the key social and economic issue.Using provincial panel data from 1861 to 1910,this paper studies the effect of railway construction on economic strikes and related mechanisms based on constant improvement of transportation infrastructure in modern China.It arrives at the results as follows:firstly,railway construction plays an alleviation role in economic strikes by employees,namely the increase in railway mileages by 1% leads to the reduction in the probability of economic strikes by about 50%;secondly,railway construction results in the decrease in labor transfer costs,thereby promoting interregional free flow of labor factors,reducing interregional wage gap and ultimately easing the strikes.The historical evidence in this paper provides reference for how to depend on the construction of transportation infrastructure to alleviate social conflicts and establish a harmonious society in current China.