制造驱动还是服务驱动?——基于中国产业关联效应的实证研究

Manufacturing-driven or Service-driven?An Empirical Research Based on the Effect of Industrial Linkage in China

本文利用1987-2010年间中国投入产出表以及相应年份的延长表,运用投入产出分析方法全面测算并比较了服务业与制造业之间关联变化的特征。研究发现中国制造业和服务业的关联效应总体上趋于上升的态势,制造业对经济增长的拉动作用远远高于服务业,制造驱动经济发展在产业关联上具有显著的特征。但服务业的溢出效应要高于制造业,其对于制造业发展的支持作用非常明显,而制造业对服务业的带动作用则较小。从制造业的产业关联来看,技术密集型行业在内生发展和溢出机制上都要优于资本和劳动密集型行业。尽管在研发、信息与商务服务上的溢出效应有了较大的进展,但金融、流通等与制造业转型升级比较密切的服务业的溢出效应还相当低。因此优化供给推动与需求拉动的产业关联机制,突破地方保护、贸易壁垒等制度性的障碍,完善制造与服务的生态系统建设是实现中国产业融合发展的关键所在。

Based on input-output tables from 1987 to 2010and the extension tables in corresponding years,this paper employs input-output analysis method to measure comprehensively and compare the features of changes in industrial linkage between service and manufacturing sectors.It shows that the linkage effect between manufacturing and service sectors has a rising tendency as a whole;the manufacturing-driven role in economic growth is far stronger than the service-driven role,and manufacturing-driven economic development has significant characteristics in industry linkage.But the spillover effect of service industry is much stronger than the one of manufacturing;and the service industry's support for the development of manufacturing industry is very obvious;on the contrary,the leading role in service industry by manufacturing industry is small.From the perspective of industrial linkage of manufacturing industry,as for endogenous development mechanism and spillover mechanism,technology intensive industries are better than capital intensive and labor intensive industries.Although the spillover effects on research and development,information and business services have been made great progress,the spillover effects of service industries like finance and circulation field,which are closely related with transformation and upgrading in manufacturing are still very low.The integrated industry development in China also lies in improving the industrial linkage mechanism driven by supply and demand breaking institutional obstacles like local,protection and trade barriers and improving the construction of ecological system of manufacturing and service industries.