承接产业转移示范区具有更高的全要素生产率吗?

Do National Industrial Relocation Demonstration Zones Have Higher Total Factor Productivity?

自2010年以来,中西部地区先后设立了多个国家级承接产业转移示范区,这些示范区是否促进了创新提高了地区全要素生产率(TFP)呢?文章测算了285个地级以上城市的TFP,采用双重差分模型分析了设立承接产业转移示范区对地区TFP的政策处理效应。研究发现:在观测区间内,地级以上城市的TFP呈下降趋势;从整体看,设立承接产业转移示范区对地区TFP的政策处理效应显著为负,但存在明显的地区差异,中部地区的政策效应不显著,西部地区的政策效应显著为负;示范区成立后的固定资产投资显著增加是导致地区TFP下降的主要原因,设立示范区的产业升级效应并不明显,承接具有污染性的产业转移对TFP的影响具有地区差异性。在此基础上,文章提出了如何通过承接产业转移促进中西部地区高质量发展的建议。

In response to the changes in the economic environment at home and abroad,several National Industrial Relocation Demonstration Zones(NIRDZs)have been set up in China’s central and western areas since 2010.How does the establishment of NIRDZs affect total factor productivity(TFP)?The answer to this question is of great practical significance to further optimize the development of NIRDZs,change the pattern of economic growth,and promote regional coordinated development.The TFP of 285 cities at prefecture level is measured by using the Solow Residual method,and the average TFP of these areas shows a downward trend within the observation interval.The three demonstration areas with the highest TFP in 2015 are the Guang’an NIRDZ in Sichuan Province,the Xiangnan NIRDZ in Hunan Province and the Wanjiang NIRDZ in Anhui Province,showing that the quality of economic development in these areas is relatively higher.The three demonstration areas with the lowest TFP are the YinchuanShizuishan NIRDZ in Ningxia Autonomous Region,the Yellow River golden triangle NIRDZ and the Gansu Lanbai NIRDZ,which reflects that these areas have relatively lower input-output efficiency.A difference-in-differences(DID)approach is used to analyze the policy treatment effect of NIRDZs on regional TFP.The results show that the policy treatment effect on regional TFP in the observation period is negative,indicating that the establishment of NIRDZs for undertaking industrial relocation in central and western areas does not improve regional TFP,more than that,the regional TFP of NIRDZs decreases significantly.There exist obvious regional differences in the policy treatment effect.The effect of the central region is not significant,while that of the western region is significantly negative.The empirical analysis shows that the significant increase of the fixed asset investment after the establishment of NIRDZs is the main cause for the decrease of TFP.The effect of industrial upgrading is not obvious,and the impact of undertaking polluting industry relocation on TFP has regional differences.Therefore,in order to promote high-quality development in the central and western areas,these regions need to further improve investment efficiency in the process of undertaking industrial relocation,thoroughly implement the concept of green development,and prevent the relocation of backward production capacity and polluting industries.At the same time,they should establish a coordination mechanism for inter-regional industrial relocation and a service mechanism for connecting major projects,promote cluster industrial relocation,strengthen innovation-driven development,and accelerate technological progress,so as to enhance the endogenous growth capacity of these areas.