我国消费平滑的地区性差异及其根源:家庭、社区和政府的比较分析

Regional Differences in China's Consumption Smoothing and Its Root Causes:A Comparative Analysis of Families,Communities and Governments

文章根据2010-2014年CFPS的调查数据,深入分析了中国家庭消费平滑的区域差异及其根源。首先,基于风险分担模型,选取合适的代理变量测度了东部、中部和西部地区以及城乡家庭消费平滑的能力;其次,运用Oaxaca-Blinder分解法从家庭、社区和政府三个层面去寻找导致消费平滑的根源。研究结果发现:东部地区家庭的消费平滑能力最强,中部次之,西部最弱,并且城镇家庭的消费平滑能力也要强于农村家庭。消费平滑区域差异的主要根源来自家庭自给与国家政策层面,尤以家庭净财产和政府补助的作用最为突出。这也反映了政府没能成功利用转移支付等方式去进行有效的收入再分配,从而达到缩小区域间消费平滑差异的目的。而社区层面上的家庭社会交往,则对缩小地区间消费平滑能力差距起了显著作用。其他一些因素如户主学历、家庭规模和区域金融比率等也影响着平滑能力的大小。各地区政府需要针对上述深层次的原因,有的放矢地采取措施方能提升当地的消费潜力。

According to the survey data of CFPS in Peking University from 2010 to 2014,this paper deeply analyzes the regional differences and causes of household consumption smoothing in China.Firstly,based on the risk-sharing model,the appropriate agent variables are selected to measure the ability of consumption smoothing in the eastern,central and western regions,including urban and rural areas.Secondly,the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method is adopted from the three angles:family self-sufficiency,social networks and national policies,to find the root source of smooth consumption.The study finds that households in the eastern region own the strongest ability of consumption smoothing,followed by the middle and the weakest in the west,and the urban households also have stronger spending power than the rural households.The main sources of differences in consumption smoothing regions are from the level of household self-sufficiency and national policies,especially the role of household net assets and government subsidies.It also reflects that the government fails to use transfer payments and other means to carry out effective income redistribution,so as to achieve the purpose of narrowing consumption differences between regions.Social networks play a significant positive role in narrowing the regional gap in consumption smoothing.Some other factors such as the level of the head’s education,family size,and regional financial development also affect the ability to smooth.All regions need to focus on the deep-rooted sources of household consumption smoothing,which can effectively increase the potential of local consumption.