社保缴费负担对我国企业生存风险的影响研究

A Research on the Impact of the Social Security Payment Burden on the Survival Risk of Chinese Enterprises

文章在理论分析的基础上,利用倾向值匹配、Cox比例风险模型等方法实证检验了我国企业社保缴费负担对其生存风险的影响及其机理。研究发现:在其他因素不变的情况下,社保缴费负担的提高会对企业的市场退出风险率造成先降低、后提高的'U'形影响,这是由于社保缴费负担对企业劳动产出效率的促进效应和对劳动力投资规模的抑制效应共同作用的结果。拐点处的企业最优社保缴费率(以'社保缴费总额/工资总额'计)平均约为20.28%,不同类型的企业对社保负担的承受能力有所差异。

For a long time,most enterprises in China’s market are facing a greater withdrawal risk,and their average life span is relatively short.The impact of the social security payment burden on the survival risk of enterprises has been a hot topic of social concern.Based on the theoretical analysis,this paper examines the impact of the social security payment burden on the survival risk of Chinese enterprises and its mechanism by using the method of propensity score matching and Cox proportional hazard model.The results show that under the condition of other factors unchanged,the increase in the social security payment burden will have a'U'-type effect on the market exit risk rate of enterprises,which will be reduced first and then increased.This is due to the combined effect of social security contributions on the scale of labor investment in enterprises and the promotion effect on labor output.Specifically,in the low-burden stage,improving the level of social security contribution will help to promote the efficiency of labor output and reduce the risk of withdrawal;but when the social security burden of enterprises exceeds the optimal rate,if we continue to increase the social security burden,it will restrain the investment of enterprises in labor force,which will lead to the increase of the risk of withdrawal of enterprises.The optimal social security contribution rate(calculated by'total corporate social security contributions/total wages payable')is about 20.28%on average.Different types of enterprises have different tolerance to the social security burden.On average,small and medium-sized enterprises are less able to bear the social security burden than large enterprises;new enterprises are less able to bear the social security burden than long-term enterprises.Based on these findings,this paper argues that it is necessary to reduce the statutory social security premium rate of enterprises in China,because the statutory social security premium rate of enterprises in most regions is more than 25%.But at the same time,the implementation of the social security policy needs to be strengthened,because many enterprises in China have not paid social security fees in full,and the average actual social security premium rate is far lower than the statutory rate.In addition,this paper also puts forward other policy suggestions to help to reduce the survival risk of enterprises.