贷款损失准备计提与商业银行经营风险相关性研究——基于经理自主权视角

Study on Correlation Between Loan Loss Provision and Business Risk of Commercial Bank——Based on the Perspective of Discretionary Loan Loss Provision

贷款损失准备的计提作为商业银行调节会计利润的手段,是否对商业银行经营风险有影响,是一个值得探讨的问题。基于我国上市商业银行2007-2017年的数据为研究样本进行实证分析,研究结果表明:贷款损失准备对商业银行经营风险有正向信号传递作用。其中,基于经理自主权计提的自由裁量部分能缓释经营风险,非自由裁量部分对经营风险产生加速放大效应,从而证明了自由裁量贷款损失准备能增强银行风险承担能力,为商业银行经理人员和监管者合理规范计提准备金提供新思路。

As a means for commercial banks to adjust accounting profits, loan loss provision is a problem worth discussing whether it has an impact on the operating risk of commercial banks. This paper takes A-share listed commercial banks as samples, selecting the data from 2007 to 2017 for empirical analysis. The research results show that the loan loss provision has a positive signal transmission effect to the commercial bank risk, and has the effect of enlarging the risk. Among them, the discretionary part has a release effect on the business risk, while the non-discretionary part of provision has an accelerated amplification effect on the business risk. Thus, it is proved that the discretionary loan loss provision can enhance the risk taking capacity of banks and the positive role of risk management of commercial banks. The conclusion provides the reference and basis for the managers and supervisors in reserve provision.